I went 5-6 last week ATS, dropping to three games under .500 ATS for the season. The Good: Nailing my upset special with Liberty handling BYU. The bad: Picking Toledo to beat Buffalo by double digits. The ugly: Picking Iowa to keep it somehow close to Ohio State.
(All point spreads are from BetMGM, Click here for live odds, all Eastern kickoff times.)
Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse (-2.5), noon, ABC
Orange’s attack has faltered for most of the past month, going beyond 400 meters only once, against FCS Wagner. The defense, however, has been outstanding and should be able to handle a very inconsistent attack from Notre Dame.
Syracuse 23, Notre Dame 17
Take: Syracuse 2.5
No. 2 Ohio State (-15.5) at No. 13 Penn State, noon, Fox
It’s the first big test for the Buckeyes, who have a ton of firepower. I think the Nittany Lions are responding after being embarrassed in the trenches on both sides of the ball in Michigan, but ultimately Ohio State’s advantage at quarterback will be the difference in the second half.
State of Ohio 38, State of Pennsylvania 27
Take: Penn State +15.5
TCU No. 7 (-7.5) in West Virginia, noon, ESPN
The Mountaineers’ defense, especially against the pass, has taken a beating this month. Now he faces a faster team than before and with a hotter quarterback. Oh oh.
TCU 40, West Virginia 24
No. 20 Cincinnati at UCF (-1), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Both defenses are really good, but the Bearcats defense is better and has been more consistent.
Cincinnati 28, UCF 24
Take: Cincinnati +1
Georgia No. 1 (-22.5) vs. Florida, 3:30 p.m., CBS
It looks like it’s time for the Bulldogs to beef up again. I think Kirby Smart will set them up to slow down dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson and a Gators running game that has come alive since losing Tennessee last month.
Georgia 42, Florida 21
Take: Florida +22.5
No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 22 Kansas State (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox
Mike Gundy’s team is giving up a ton of yards, but the offense has been so good that they have managed to overcome defensive issues. I think it will be again.
Oklahoma State 35, Kansas State 31
Take: Oklahoma State +1.5
Kentucky No. 19 at Tennessee No. 3 (-12.5), 7 p.m., ESPN
I like Will Levis’ playing ability and Chris Rodriguez has really warmed up since his return, but I just can’t choose against the Vols at home right now.
Tennessee 44, Kentucky 31
Take: Tennessee -12.5
Even when Michigan has won in this heated rivalry in recent years, MSU has managed to keep it relatively tight and keep the Wolverines from covering. But my feeling is that this Michigan team is different from those of the past and will keep their foot on the accelerator.
Michigan 45, Michigan State 17
No. 15 Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
Lane Kiffin will face his former defensive coordinator DJ Durkin and the Aggies should have some answers, but I don’t see them capable of reviving what has been a terrible SEC pass rush offense.
Ole Miss 28, Texas A&M 20
Take: Ole Miss -2.5
Pitt at No. 21 North Carolina (-3), 8 p.m., ACC Network
The Tar Heels return home after two road trips to face a Pitt team that lost by two touchdowns in Louisville. Go with UNC. Drake Maye has a 13-0 TD-INT ratio in games at Chapel Hill.
UNC 31, Pitt 20
Take: North Carolina -3
Upset Special: Illinois (-7.5) at Nebraska, 3:30 p.m., ABC
The Huskers played really hard for Mickey Joseph and I think they’re overdue for a big upset win, although I almost dissuaded myself from this one considering the Nebraska defense was on the field for 101 games the last week and the Illini was only out there for 42.
Nebraska 17, Illinois 16
Take: Nebraska +7.5
(Top photo: Dale Zanine/USA Today)
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